CFA Level3 learning notes-CME-Exogenous Shocks to Growth
LOS-explain how exogenous shocks may affect economic growth trends
Virtually by definition, the effect of truly exogenous shocks on the level and/or growth rate of the economy will not have been built into asset prices in advance—although the risk of such events will likely have been reflected in prices to some degree.
尽管市场可能会在一定程度上反映这些事件的风险，但它们的实际影响通常不会被提前纳入资产价格。这意味着当真正的外部冲击发生时，市场可能会出现剧烈波动，并迅速调整资产价格以反映新的信息。
Exogenous Shocks to Growth:
Policy changes：
pro-growth government policies include:sound fiscal policy, minimal intrusion on the private sector, encouraging competition within the private sector, support for infrastructure and human capital development, and sound tax policies.
Any significant, unexpected change in these policies that is likely to persist will change the expected trend rate of growth,erecting trade barriers will diminish trend growth.
New products and technologies：
enhances potential growth.
Geopolitical conflict：
the potential to reduce growth by diverting resources to less economically productive uses.
but can also spur innovation that results in growth-enhancing technologies.
Natural disasters：
In the short run, a disaster is likely to reduce growth.
but it may enhance long-run growth if old capacity is replaced with more efficient facilities.
Natural resources/critical inputs：
production of those resources,reducing the cost of production for other products enhance potential growth.
sustained reduction in the supply of important resources diminishes growth.
financial crises：
lose confidence in others’ ability/willingness to meet their obligations.
27 Jun 2023 - by toptradeready.com